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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: BTC Deviates From 2015-2018 Cycle Pattern, Raising Questions for Traders | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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7/19/2025 3:00:16 PM

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: BTC Deviates From 2015-2018 Cycle Pattern, Raising Questions for Traders

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: BTC Deviates From 2015-2018 Cycle Pattern, Raising Questions for Traders

According to @MilkRoadDaily, Bitcoin's (BTC) price performance since its 2022 cycle low had been closely mirroring the 2015–2018 market cycle. However, this historical pattern was broken in the first quarter of 2025, as stated in the analysis. This deviation from the expected trajectory now poses a critical question for traders regarding whether the current market cycle has enough momentum for further gains.

Source

Analysis

Bitcoin's price trajectory since the cycle low in 2022 has drawn significant attention from traders and analysts, closely mirroring the patterns observed during the 2015-2018 market cycle. According to Milk Road Daily, this parallel held strong until the first quarter of 2025, when BTC broke away from the historical blueprint, sparking debates on whether the current cycle still holds untapped potential for further gains. This shift represents a critical juncture for cryptocurrency investors, as it challenges long-held assumptions about cycle durations and peak performances in the BTC market.

Analyzing BTC's Historical Price Patterns and Recent Deviations

In the 2015-2018 cycle, Bitcoin experienced a prolonged bear market followed by a explosive bull run, with key milestones including a bottoming out around $200 in early 2015 and peaking near $20,000 by late 2017. Fast-forward to the post-2022 era, BTC's recovery from its cycle low near $15,000 in November 2022 echoed this path, with steady accumulation phases and breakout rallies that pushed prices toward all-time highs. However, as noted by Milk Road Daily in their July 19, 2025 update, the pattern divergence in Q1 2025—marked by accelerated upside momentum beyond the expected timeline—suggests external factors like institutional adoption and macroeconomic shifts may be extending the cycle. Traders should monitor key support levels around $60,000, established in early 2025, as a breach could signal a return to historical norms, while resistance at $100,000 remains a pivotal target for bullish continuation.

From a trading perspective, this break from the 2015-2018 script opens up intriguing opportunities in BTC/USD pairs on major exchanges. Volume data from that period showed spikes during breakout phases, often correlating with on-chain metrics like increased wallet activity and hash rate recoveries. In the current cycle, similar indicators are flashing positive signals; for instance, Bitcoin's network hash rate hit record highs in mid-2025, supporting the narrative of sustained growth. Investors eyeing long positions might consider dollar-cost averaging into BTC during dips below $70,000, with stop-losses set at recent lows to mitigate downside risks. Conversely, if the cycle exhausts prematurely, short opportunities could emerge around overbought RSI levels above 70 on daily charts, potentially targeting a retest of $50,000 support.

Trading Strategies Amid Cycle Uncertainty

To navigate this uncertainty, incorporating multiple trading pairs such as BTC/ETH or BTC/USDT can provide diversified exposure. Historical data indicates that during the 2018 peak, BTC dominance surged before a sharp correction, a pattern that could repeat if the current cycle extends into late 2025. On-chain metrics, including realized price distributions, show that long-term holders are still accumulating, with over 70% of BTC supply unmoved for more than a year as of July 2025. This hodler behavior bolsters the case for more upside, potentially driving prices toward $120,000 if macroeconomic tailwinds like interest rate cuts persist. For day traders, focusing on 4-hour chart patterns—such as ascending triangles formed post-Q1 2025—offers entry points with high reward-to-risk ratios, aiming for 10-15% gains per trade.

Broader market implications extend to altcoins and stock correlations, where BTC's performance often influences Nasdaq-listed tech stocks with crypto exposure. If this cycle indeed has more to give, as questioned by Milk Road Daily, we could see renewed institutional flows, evidenced by ETF inflows surpassing $50 billion in 2025 alone. However, risks remain, including regulatory hurdles and geopolitical tensions that could cap gains. Ultimately, traders should blend technical analysis with fundamental insights, watching for volume surges above 100,000 BTC daily as confirmation of bullish momentum. This evolving narrative underscores Bitcoin's resilience, positioning it as a cornerstone asset for portfolio diversification in volatile markets.

Milk Road

@MilkRoadDaily

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